19. How Intelligence Works

This entry is a summary of a talk given on July 7, 2010by Nigel West on board Queen Mary 2, headed from New York to Southhampton, UK. Disclaimer: Any errors or omissions in the following are totally my own and should not be attributed to Nigel West.

The following is a review of how the intelligence industry works.
First note that intelligence involves three disciplines:

1. Collection (getting data),
2. Analysis (putting data into context), and
3. Counterintelligence (gathering information about other hostile “agents” or agencies in order to neutralize them.

Collection of data comes from a variety of sources.

Sources are classified into about eight categories. Finished intelligence (for dissemination) is a fitting together of pieces from overlapping sources.

1. Open sources. About 85% of information is obtained from open sources, such as newspapers, journals, etc. As an example, in 1938 nuclear fission was observed and published in scientific journals. As soon as the journals reached the United States the science of fission was immediately known and understood. When it was realized that fission might be weaponized all publication on fission ceased. That gave every nuclear physicist in the world the indication that the United States might have a nuclear weapon development program underway.

2. Diplomatic reports. Some are in the open, others obtained by other methods. Such reports give indications of a country’s intentions and plans.

3. Liaison relationships. Attaches are posted by a country to their embassies abroad. They are “legal” spies, and can be helpful not only to their home country but to the country in which they are posted since they provide a direct way of revealing information they want others to know about. Usually they are declared to the host country. It is a myth that liaison operates against the host country. There is the so-called "third-party rule" – whereby the recipient of intelligence from an ally should not share it on with anyone without the originator's consent. MI5 (in the UK) and the US insisted that this is an immutable law of international security. What a U.S. attaché learns in Germany is not shared with any other country other than the US and possibly Germany.

4. Interrogation. Interrogators of POWs or captured agents use a variety of methods to get information. Most simply try to provoke conversations, and may not even use direct questioning. Steps up may include psychological pressure, bugging of cells, sleep deprivation, noise, sounds of torture, and false executions. NATO makes much of the illegal “Enhanced Interrogation Techniques.)

5. Aerial observation. Sometimes called Imaging Intelligence (Im-int, or Imint), observation may be made from anything from blimps to satellites. The US has used high-flying, virtually undetectable aircraft, such as the SR70 Blackbird, or the infamous U-2.Countries capable of launching satellites today all have agreed to declare the orbits to the U.N.

6. Signal interception. Known as Sigint, this kind of information may intercept communications (Comint), or electronic emissions (elint). Such information can be quite useful. Comint usually requires decryption and decoding. Enigma machines (Ultra, etc.) are examples of methods of denying communication information from other countries by encryption. During WW II codebreakers radically changed the war by breaking very difficult codes. The Germans used several methods, including Geheimschreiber (secret writer) – the traffic was known a Fish. For some of these machines, the Allies could read the messages almost in real time. Japan had "System 97 Printing Machine for European Characters" or Angōki Taipu-B, codenamed Purple by the Allies. The decrypted traffic was known as Magic. Decryption of Soviet traffic (after WWII) led to the Venona project and identification of several Soviet as well as British and American agents. In current times, the cell phone is an excellent device for counterintelligence. All terrorists carry cell phones. They are trackable, and provide many bits of information, even DNA if they are found abandoned.

7. Measurement and sensing. This deals directly with electronic signals. It is highly classified and gathered by agencies such as NSA, and GCHQ in the UK. This method of gathering data covers the entire electromagnetic spectrum (gamma rays to ultra-long radio waves.

8. Humint. As one would expect, this stands for human sources. It is difficult to acquire (as in present-day Iran), and hard to manage. Further it is extremely difficult to verify validity and reliability of a human source.